What's the latest we would notice the gravitational effects of incoming super massive black hole?

Assuming we are unable to see the black hole via any way such as gravitational lensing, accretion disc or whatever. This is hand wave approach just to make my setting work, due to this answer which sets it too far away.

At what distance we would feel the gravitational effects of a supermassive black hole? Like nearby stars changing orbits, interstellar gas changing shape etc.

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What's the latest we would notice the gravitational effects of incoming super massive black hole?

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