Guano mines versus early artificial fertilizers?

Ok, so this is an very odd little question.

I've been working out the economy of an industrial age world; figuring the major industries, trade routes, etc. I have a tropical region I was considering putting a lot of guano mines in. In the real world, South American guano was prized as a valuable fertilizer. As supplies ran short, we turned to artificially synthesized ammonia instead.

It's not totally clear to me whether this was to satisfy demand, or because ammonia synthesis is in some way just that much more competitive; whether it results in a superior product, can be made faster and in larger bulk, costs much less to produce, etc. etc.

So, in a world where ammonia synthesis has recently become possible (in the last couple of decades), how likely would it be to seriously cut into an otherwise thriving guano mining industry?

posted over 7 years ago

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