How to render a large percentage of humans infertile?
I'm looking for a way to render a large percentage (30 to 50%) of Earth's human population infertile in about 10 years. Medicine and tech levels are approximately where they are now, maybe slightly more advanced.
- Sterility is permanent. No medical advances in the next 30 years will be able to undo the damage done.
- Absolutely non-lethal. Whatever makes people sterile can't kill them.
- People don't know that they have been rendered sterile till they attempt to have children.
- Common infertility tests will detect the infertility.
- Men and women are equally affected.
- The effect is global by the end of the 10 years.
- Wild life is unaffected by this event. They continue to reproduce, same as they always have.
This is a science-based question so a minimum of hand waving, please. Journal articles, equations or other authoritative sources are nice to have but not required in your answer.
This post was sourced from https://worldbuilding.stackexchange.com/q/22863. It is licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0.
1 answer
Chemical castration
Cyproterone acetate
Cyproterone acetate is one choice for chemical castration. Hormonal Therapy for Male Sexual Dysfunction describes it as a "potent, dose-dependent antiandrogenic and progestational agent" which can block "T and estrogen synthesis in the gonads" - meaning that it can work for women as well as men. To replicate the (potentially potent) effects shown in studies, cyproterone acetate must be taken orally daily, generally in doses of 50-200 mg. However, it can also be taken as an injection every week in doses of 300-600 mg. Transsexual and Other Disorders of Gender Identity notes that there may be side effects, notably liver problems and depression. However, these would not be attributed right away to a drug like this. While oral treatment is generally supposed to be undergone every day, Jeffcoate et al. (1980) were able to produce effects lasting for up to 28 days in special cases of tests.
Depot medroxyprogesterone acetate
I'm also currently investigating the usage of depot medroxyprogesterone acetate, which is often better known as Depo-Provera. It should be similarly effective.
Delivery
For advice on this, I went to the question that drew me to Worldbuilding, How do I drug a population in the most efficient way?. For the oral option, there is the old fallback of conspiracy theorists: Putting it in the water supply. granted, dilution would have to be accounted for, but it's a possibility. The other, better solution is TimB's suggestion for that question: periodic vaccination.
The downside is that this isn't a once-and-done procedure. However, it satisfies all of the other requirements, as far as I can tell. That said, I am not aware of any extremely long-term studies, so it is possible that Jeffcoate et al.'s lasting effects cold be replicated and extended far beyond 28 days if dosage is upped and extended for longer periods of time.
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