What is the soonest we could possibly have a self-sufficient base on Mars?

I'm interested in writing a story about inhabitants of a permanent base on Mars, a few decades after all life on earth has (presumably) been wiped out. Preferably, I'd like them to still be there, be it with a major setback in technology.

In the interest of keeping the community on Mars more relatable, I'd like the story to be set not too far in the future. Assuming this is set in our actual solar system, at what point is it plausible that we could have built a (almost) self-sufficient base on Mars and what could have been the motivation of the people doing the colonizing?

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What is the soonest we could possibly have a self-sufficient base on Mars?

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