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Comments on Are heat waves a symptom of 'rebound effect' after climate change deceleration during COVID-19 lockdowns?

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Are heat waves a symptom of 'rebound effect' after climate change deceleration during COVID-19 lockdowns?

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During the summer of 2022 Europe has had several heat waves. As described in 2022 European heat waves:

Climatologists linked the extreme heat to the impact of climate change, and experts predict that changes in the jet stream as a result of climate change will cause heatwaves with increasing frequency in Europe. Furthermore, due to the jet stream, the increase in heatwaves for European countries is three-to-four times higher than other countries in northern mid-latitudes, such as the United States.

The temperatures skyrocketed and various heat records were beaten. This comes just two years after the COVID-19 lockdowns that reduced emissions, and where -if I get the data right- no dramatic heatwaves were recorded. As seen in How did COVID-19 lockdowns affect the climate?:

How these emissions affect the content of the atmosphere varies for each different gas or aerosol. We know that aerosols only stay in the air for a few days and so the amounts of them can change very quickly. Many places in the world saw big improvements in air quality and visibility due to the reduction in aerosols.

So the idea would be that the lockdowns had some impact on reducing the climate change. However, now, just two years later, I wonder if we are seeing a 'rebound effect', or it is just the climate change going back to its normal increasing path?

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Non sequitur? (3 comments)
Non sequitur?
Canina‭ wrote over 1 year ago · edited over 1 year ago

This question appears to assume that climate change "paused" due to a reduced amount of aerosols in the atmosphere, but I don't see anything in it to support such an interpretation of facts. Your quote from the UK Met Office mentions air quality and visibility, but is there any reason to conclude that this would also have any significant greenhouse effects (either way)? I haven't looked at relevant data, but an overall increasing frequency of extreme weather events certainly isn't incompatible with a temporary respite from extreme weather events during a 1-2 year period, and can be entirely uncorrelated with air quality or visibility.

fedorqui‭ wrote over 1 year ago

Good point, Canina‭. I somehow thought (and have just edited in) it was relevant the lack of heatwaves during the lockdown. I believe climate change is non linear, and that extreme events are not going to follow a perfect correlation, but somehow thought that the reduce of the trend (by having less emissions) could collide with a higher amount of events when the emissions were back to 'normal'.

Canina‭ wrote over 1 year ago

fedorqui‭ Well, all else equal, it's certainly a reasonable assumption that in the absence of one contributing factor, the probability of an event would be reduced. That said, an increase in the probability of an event (in this case, extreme weather events) over time does not necessarily mean that such an event (again, extreme weather events) will occur every some time period (for example, year). Assuming that the claim is correct, it could be a coincidence, or it could actually be correlated; although if it is the latter, my guess would be that it's not a correlation with aerosol content in the atmosphere, but rather more with the rate of increase of the concentration of greenhouse gases including CO2 from burning of fossil fuels due to reduced energy demand. Have you looked at energy consumption data per source (gasoline, nuclear, ...) for the period in question?