If a colonial uprising occurred (and succeeded to some extent), what would the implications be on extraplanetary policy?

So, I ran into a problem regarding the aftermath of a colonial war for independence. What happens is the following: The scenario is this: late 24th Century, humans have colonised the Inner Solar System, the Belt, the Trojans, Europa, Ganymede, Callisto, Io and the Moons and rings of Saturn.

The colonists of Mars and the Outer Solar System are starting to culturally drift away from Earth, thanks to the advent of pantropy, (in the Outer Solar System) moderately available gene therapy and (on the Inner Solar System) widespread gene therapy and cybernetics and have various political disputes, especially considering the strengthening of UNAPA into a de facto military and law enforcement hand of the UN beyond Earth, and the decreased influence of the nations of Earth in their extraplanetary affairs (yes, Earth is still divided among nation-states). However, they cannot become independent without access to life's bottleneck: phosphorus. The key to maintaining the life support systems for these colonies. Earth has a monopoly over this, and these colonists attempt to find an alternate non-Earth derived source. They find it in the form of carboniferous asteroids (which are an actual thing), especially in Deimos and some Saturnian Moons in large quantities.

As a result: war breaks out, Mars' uprising is crushed but the Outer Solar System obtains sovereignty. However, the celebrations do not last for the Outer Solar System inhabitants as the colonists have no clear decision on what to do regarding the future of their new nations. So, civil war, anarchy and balkanisation occurs across large portions of the region, despite the rise of Titan, Europa and Ganymede a successful independent states.

So, as a result I wanted to ask: what implications could this course of events have across the Solar System realistically speaking, especially in the field of extraplanetary policy (basically foreign policy in other words)?

For background purposes, the pre-First Extraplanetary War situation is basically simple. The colonies on Mars are in the process of being terraformed, and Venus as well. The Moon has millions of inhabitants, while by comparison, the Belt and the Outer Solar System worlds are starting to become emerging economies prior to the conflict. And by "emerging" I refer to along the lines of modern-day China, or the Four Asian Tigers sort of "emerging". This is just an economic background. And Earth.....well, there is no unified government as previously mentioned, BUT there IS an organisation that maintains control over the pre-Independence era colonies and it is a UN Branch as previously mentioned, originally established as an organisation meant to regulate extraplanetary affairs between the superpowers on Earth and handle inter-colonial disputes, now a de facto military and law enforcement force beyond Earth. The UN Authority on Planetary Affairs or UNAPA, for short. This UN branch is supposed to be controlling the efforts of Earth's nations to maintain a degree of stability and order across the pre-War colonies. So, yes. :P

NOTE: This (as of April 11, 2016) is part of the Extended Edition for the To The Planets Beyond alternate historical timeline. As the scenario is updated, and new questions regarding this particular point of its history are asked, I will continue to provide more relevant information.

posted about 8 years ago

Future Historian‭

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