Would Moore's Law apply to mechanical computers?
We know through the works of Babbage, Lovelace, et al. that mechanical computers (computers operating through gears, cogs, etc., and powered by steam or some other arbitrary non-electric power source) are possible.
In our world, it has been observed that electronic computers obey various forms of Moore's laws, with exponential growth.
In a world without electronic computers as we know them, would mechanical computers display a Moore's Law-like exponential curve of improvements? If not, why?
- Would Moore's Law simply be inapplicable to mechanically engineered non-microscopic components (e.g. gears, cogs, ratchets, etc.)?
- Would it initially apply, but rapidly hit a "hard" physical barrier/limit?
- Would it follow some other kind of curve, such as linear growth or polynomial growth?
I would allow limited use of electricity as a power source, but not for driving logical circuits. Cathode-ray tubes, while technically being a form of a vacuum tube, could be allowed for display only, but I'm thinking more the use of mechanical television instead if at all reasonable. Standard electric-dependent computing components such as RAM, ROM, ferrite core memory, and hard disks are definitely out.
This post was sourced from https://worldbuilding.stackexchange.com/q/137160. It is licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0.
1 answer
Sorry to be a bit of a spoil-sport, but...
Moore's law doesn't apply.
Moore's law is the recognition that semiconductor complexity (in integrated circuits) increases at a particular rate.
The very Wikipedia article itself you linked to states that
Despite a popular misconception, Moore is adamant that he did not predict a doubling "every 18 months". Rather, David House, an Intel colleague, had factored in the increasing performance of transistors to conclude that integrated circuits would double in performance every 18 months.
The cited source (link, alternative link), in turn, states that
Moore's law is baÂsiÂcally about tranÂsisÂtor denÂsity, but there are many verÂsions of the Moore's law for other caÂpaÂbilÂiÂties of digÂiÂtal elecÂtronÂics.
and that
In 1975, Moore reÂvised his preÂdicÂtion as the numÂber of comÂpoÂnents in the inÂteÂgrated cirÂcuits douÂbling every year to douÂbling every two years.
(My boldface all three.)
Since mechanical computers presumably aren't semiconductor-based, nor use transistors or integrated circuits, Moore's law simply doesn't apply to them. If you are referring to some alternative, related observation, then you are referring to something other than Moore's law (but possibly derived from it).
It's likely that miniturization would follow some curve, but I can't imagine you'd get to have cogs in the low nanometer dimensions (the same order of magnitude as features of modern high-density integrated circuits). That's simply because you'd need enough material to hold itself together, while performing some kind of useful work. For example, turning a cog to increase a counter will require some amount of energy, which must be delivered to and ultimately supported by the cog.
To have physical components of those dimensions, you'd likely need some kind of super-material to hold together, and hold its shape, under those stresses. Barring that, it seems to me that you're likely to hit a physical limit at much larger dimensions than those viable for anything resembling a present-day integrated circuit.
0 comment threads
0 comment threads